MySpace Needs a Big Q4

Dismal news from yesterday’s News Corp. earnings call — but most of the bad news wasn’t at Fox Interactive Media. Revenue at that unit was up 17% year-over-year to $220 million. That’s not a bad showing compared to competitors like Yahoo!, AOL and MSN. But by other measures, it was definitely weak. 17% was the lowest y/o/y growth recorded by FIM since News Corp. started providing that data back in early 2007. Back then revenue was growing by leaps and bounds, reaching as high as 87% growth y/o/y in the fourth quarter of 2007 (News Corp.’s fiscal Q2 2008).

Now things are trending downward, and given the softness in the economy it’s certain that FIM will not see a huge bump in the calendar fourth quarter anywhere near the one it got last year. In fact, it will be lucky to match last year’s revenue in that quarter, which was $233 million.

What does this mean for MySpace revenues? News Corp. doesn’t officially break out MySpace from FIM, but my rule of thumb has been that MySpace accounts for about 80%. So far this calendar year, FIM has generated $655 million in revenue, which translates to about $525 million for MySpace, if you use the 80/20 rule.

The good news for MySpace is that it has several new revenue engines that will kick in in the calendar fourth quarter – including the MyAds self-serve ad system and the newly launched MySpace Music, which will also bring in some e-commerce dollars. But there’s only so much it can do in a dwindling worldwide economy.

Once upon a time (way back in August 2007 – an eternity ago, it seems) Rupert Murdoch had predicted that FIM would reach $1 billion and MySpace would bring in $800 million in revenue in News Corp.’s fiscal 2008 (which ended in June). It didn’t meet that target (FIM generated just $856 million in the period), and such grandiose predictions are a thing of the past at News Corp.

FIM revenue quarterly growth, calendar Q2 2006-calendar Q3 2008
Q2 06 11.6%
Q3 06 13.7%
Q4 06 20.2%
Q1 07 8.0%
Q2 07 35.6%
Q3 07 2.7%
Q4 07 23.9%
Q1 08 -9.9%
Q2 08 7.1%
Q3 08 -2.2%

Samsung’s “Moms Like Us”

Another day, another marketer-created social network. This one’s for Samsung’s washers and dryers and it’s called Moms Like Us.

The press release notes that the site has accumulated 17,000 members since August, and today when I checked the number was over 20,000. I was impressed by that figure, but then I noticed that in order to register for a sweepstakes that Samsung is running, you have to join the social network. That doesn’t exactly translate into regular loyal usership.

Right now the site feels sparse and also too promotional. A product review section contains several reviews of Samsung products, all five stars, all positive, all apparently pulled directly from Sears.com. But consumers will see through that, as one commenter already did (“And there are no negative or even in the middle reviews?? Strange.”)

There are four “Samsung Moms” who blog and video about their experiences with the Samsung washers and dryers. And there’s a “Laundry-Pedia” with a few tips on washing and drying clothes. Users can add their own and even edit the tips, but so far it’s not clear anyone has done so.

The site was designed by Cheil USA Interactive Group.